Are koala populations truly booming, or are we being misled? A recent report from CSIRO claims koala numbers have tripled in just three years, sparking a heated debate between conservationists and those in the logging industry. This revelation has ignited controversy, with some celebrating a conservation success story, while others vehemently question the data's validity. But here's where it gets controversial...
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), in collaboration with 50 partners including state governments and universities, developed the National Koala Monitoring Program. Their data suggests a dramatic increase in koala populations across Australia. Initial estimates in 2023 placed the koala population between 287,830 and 628,010. Now, CSIRO scientists estimate the numbers could be as high as 729,000 to 918,000. These figures have been made public on the National Koala Monitoring Program website. Surprisingly, the CSIRO declined an interview invitation from the ABC to discuss these findings further.
One prominent voice seizing upon this data is Michael Kemp, the MP for the New South Wales Mid North Coast seat of Oxley. Kemp argues that the public has been "misled for decades over koala numbers." He asserts, "What is now clear is that koala populations have been under-reported for decades." This is particularly significant in his region, which is grappling with a logging moratorium on 176,000 hectares of state forest, a move intended to pave the way for the proposed Great Koala National Park between Kempsey and Grafton. This park, a key election promise of the Minns Labor government, has faced criticism, especially regarding its economic impact on the timber industry. Kemp views the CSIRO data as evidence of the state government's "blatant disregard for evidence" in pursuing the park plan. Could this data potentially change the course of conservation efforts?
However, the Australian Koala Foundation vehemently disputes these findings. Deborah Tabart, chair of the foundation, calls the CSIRO figures "categorically wrong," stating that their field studies indicate a far smaller national koala population. "Our numbers are less than 100,000, and we will never change those figures unless we see the science and the data that actually says those animals are there – not vague maps, which is on that [CSIRO] website right now," she declared. Tabart emphasized that the foundation has been conducting scientific surveys of koalas since 1988. She predicts that "history will judge this project and this announcement very harshly." And this is the part most people miss... Tabart also points out that the CSIRO estimates are not yet supported by a peer-reviewed scientific report, which is expected next year. What could be the reason for releasing the data before it's been formally validated?
So, how can there be such a vast discrepancy in population estimates? The CSIRO attributes the significant increase to improved research techniques. In a statement, they explained it was "largely as a result of having much more spatially comprehensive and sensitive survey data." Specifically, they highlighted the use of audio recorders, which have revealed koalas to be more widespread than previously known, and thermal drone technology, which has enabled the detection of more koalas in dense forest habitats.
University of Sydney biologist Mathew Crowther echoes this sentiment, attributing the "big jump in numbers" to "more surveys and better techniques." As a veteran koala researcher, he explained, "It's not like we've got an explosion of koalas, but koalas are quite hard to spot on foot, and you can't cover that much ground. The much greater use of drones and of sound recorders, which pick up koalas… is why we're getting a lot more records of koalas." However, he also clarifies that even with the increased national population estimates, the justification for the Great Koala National Park remains valid. "Where you do localised studies, overall koalas have declined in a lot of areas and particularly in northern New South Wales, where the park is [proposed]," he said.
A statement issued on behalf of Federal Environment Minister Murray Watt supports the CSIRO's findings, stating that "the National Koala Monitoring Program has delivered robust science-based population estimates." The statement further emphasizes that "this year's estimate is backed by over 11,000 data points and more than 820 on-ground surveys and is a major achievement by CSIRO and partners." The CSIRO anticipates publishing its peer-reviewed scientific paper on koala population estimates by the end of the year or in early 2026.
Ultimately, the conflicting viewpoints raise crucial questions: Are the new, higher estimates accurate, or do they paint an overly optimistic picture? Could these numbers be used to weaken conservation efforts in specific regions where koalas are still declining? Who's right, and what implications do these conflicting numbers have for the future of koala conservation? What data do you find more compelling, and why? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
